Expensive oil, sluggish growth: the CEMAC paradox

A sharply higher oil price assumption

In its October 2026 economic outlook, the IMF raised its oil price assumption by 16%, to an average of 95.7 dollars a barrel for 2026. In the past, such a rise would have boosted CEMAC growth. This time, the zone's growth is still expected at 3% in 2026 and would reach only 3.5% in 2027.

First explanation: production is falling

In several countries, oil fields are ageing and output is declining. A higher price does not make up for lower volumes. In Chad, extractive activities contracted by 2% in the second quarter of 2026.

Second explanation: subsidies

When oil rises, imported and refined fuel costs more. Governments that hold down pump prices see their subsidies soar, which absorbs part of the oil windfall. For 2026, the regional bill is estimated at more than 3,300 billion FCFA.

Third explanation: fiscal discipline

The zone's countries have committed to the IMF to consolidate their public finances. Part of the extra revenue therefore goes to reducing deficits and rebuilding reserves rather than boosting spending.

An encouraging signal nonetheless

Quarterly data are more dynamic. According to the BEAC's composite index of economic activity, activity in the zone grew by 5.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, after 5.1% in the first quarter, driven in particular by Cameroon and the private sector. This index measures short-term activity and may differ from annual GDP growth.

The lesson is clear: tomorrow's growth will come less from oil than from diversification, with agriculture, livestock, services and local processing.

Key figures

• Average oil price assumed by the IMF for 2026: 95.7 USD (+16%)
• CEMAC growth: 3% in 2026, 3.5% in 2027 (IMF)
• BEAC activity index in Q2 2026: +5.9% year on year